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这是一篇关于美国及其他发达国家经济形势的文章。

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Much of the language used to describe monetary policy, such as 'steering the economy to a soft landing' or 'a touch on the brakes,' makes it sound like a precise science. Nothing could be further from the truth. The link between interest rates and inflation is uncertain. And there are long, variable lags before policy changes have any effect on the economy. Hence the analogy that likens the conduct of monetary policy to driving a car with a blackened windscreen, a cracked rear-view mirror and a faulty steering wheel. Given all these disadvantages, central bankers seem to have had much to boast about of late. Average inflation in the big seven industrial economies fell to a mere 2.3% last year, close to its lowest level in 30 years, before rising slightly to 2.5% this July.
很多用来描述货币政策的词,如“引导经济软着陆”,“触动经济刹车”,使货币政策听起来像是一门精确的科学。事实远非如此。利率和通货膨胀之间的关系难以确定。在政策改变对经济产生影响之前,会有一段较长时间且变化不定的后滞期。因此,才会有人将货币政策的制定比作是驾驶一辆汽车,这辆车挡风玻璃被涂黑了、后视镜裂了,方向盘也失灵了。 尽管有这么多不利因素,中央银行家们似乎对近来之形势有了不少值得夸耀的东西。西方七大工业国去年的平均通货膨胀降至仅2.3%,接近三十年来的最低水平。今年7月略微升高到2.5%。